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Are U.S. utilities wishing the Cigar Lake mine floor nightmare would go away by next month? Has sufficient time elapsed that the nuclear utilities have reached the point of denial, and that up to 10 percent of the world's mined uranium won't be stalled indefinitely? Cameco Corp's December 21st update offered some hope which has frozen the spot uranium prize at $72/pound for three straight weeks.

Cameco Corp's chief operating officer glumly hinted at something we highlighted in our late October report, "Drilling through the Athabasca sandstone has been more challenging than anticipated." Several sources, some of which may be reliable, suggested Cameco still can't the stop the water from coming in at the Cigar Lake uranium mine. We'll find out in February whether this was gossip, old news or accurate.

According to Treva Klingbiel, editor of TradeTech's Nuclear Market Review, the weekly spot U3O8 indicator stalled at $72/pound for the third straight week in quiet trading. Only one small off-market transaction took place as "the majority of market participants remain focused on early February and the anticipated update from Cameco regarding the status of remediation efforts underway at the Cigar Lake mine," Ms. Klingbiel wrote.

However, the number of active buyers rose by one to an even dozen, this past week, when a U.S. utility asked to purchase approximately 650,000 pounds U3O8 contained in UF6. Total demand for U3O8 equivalent rose to 6.5 million pounds. "Fifteen buyers remain in the long-term market evaluating or actively seeking offers totaling almost 54 million pounds U3O8 equivalent," Klingbiel wrote. One U.S. utility and two non-U.S. utilities are presently evaluating offers to buy more than 16 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent between 2009 and 2016. "Nine utilities continue to evaluate potential off-market purchases to cover long-term enrichment commitments," wrote Klingbiel.

For some the Cigar Lake fiasco has become a blessing. On January 11th, UrAsia Energy announced a sales contract with a "major North American utility." According to the company's news release, approximately four million pounds of U3O8 have been offered for delivery over a five-year period from the Akdala uranium mine in Kazakhstan. UrAsia has a 70-percent interest in the joint venture, which wholly owns the mine.

Because of the recent surge in the spot uranium price, the contract includes market-related pricing with a floor price protection at the weekly spot price indicator of US$72/pound. Of course, over the course of the next few years, the utility may be forced to pay more for the same uranium but UrAsia is guaranteed this floor price.

A day earlier, SXR Uranium One announced further sales contracts from the company's Dominion uranium/gold project in South Africa. Four new contracts offering 3.2 million pounds of U3O8 for delivery between 2008 and 2012 not only include escalating floor price protection but are also uncapped. Two months earlier, SXR had announced its first sales contract with a "western world utility" offering 1.5 million pounds for delivery between 2008 and 2012. The lion's share of Dominion uranium production has yet to be negotiated.

Because of the Cigar Lake flooding, utilities now contracting with UrAsia and SXR have been forced to pay about $150 million more for the 8.7 million pounds of uranium oxide than they might have paid on October 20, 2006. Because of the escalating floor price protection, the final penalty could surpass $200 million - just because utilities refuse to believe the uranium price should be 'this high.' In October, Sprott Asset Management's Kevin Bambrough likened the mood between uranium buyers and sellers to a poker game.

A year ago, U.S. utilities and others could have committed to those 8.7 million pounds for about $250 to $400 million less than what they might ultimately pay for this same U3O8. And the next generation of near-term uranium producers, several companies which were discussed in StockInterview's "Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market" (Click to bookstore), are likely to become the next big winners. Right now, the sellers are holding the winning hand. Unless Cameco offers some relief, the utilities' bluff for lower prices has continued to penalize their shareholders.

As SXR's Chief Executive Neal Froneman told one news service late this past week, "I would like someone to tell me how you can get a better contract than that!"

COPYRIGHT © 2007 by StockInterview, Inc. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. StockInterview’s “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market” has become the most popular book ever published for uranium mining stock investors. Visit http://www.stockinterview.com

How To Choose A Uranium Stock

Now that the uranium bull market has gone to a new level, a number of exploration stocks made spectacular percentage gains after the International Investment Conference held in San Francisco in late November 2005. We turned to Kevin Bambrough, Market Strategist, and Jean-Francoise Tardif, Portfolio Manager, at Sprott Asset Management for their advice on how to navigate through the more than 250 uranium exploration, development and producing companies available across the global investment landscape. Who better to ask than a fund that has invested around $175 million in uranium stocks the past few years, about 6.7 percent of more than $2.5 billion managed by Sprott Asset Management? The Sprott team has bet heavily on a nuclear energy renaissance, and early indications confirm very strong returns in their investments.

Before our taped telephone interview, Kevin Bambrough emailed a few comments, "We would like to make the point about some incredible gains that have been had in the uranium sector. The list is growing but not the quality so investors should use extreme caution. As the uranium price rises, and money pours into exploration, we can expect to see some sizeable discoveries coming down the road. It should be exciting times."

Prior to StockInterview.com's interviews with Mr. Bambrough and Mr. Tardif, they compiled a list of ten tips for investors studying uranium companies. The tips are listed below, followed by an extensive interview, first with Mr. Bambrough (in this installment) and a second installment with Mr. Bambrough and Mr. Tardif.

The Ten Tips Investors Should Know

1. One of the best indicators of a project's potential success could be past ownership. It's best to try to buy any mining stock early in the cycle. Try to pick up properties that were worked by majors during the last bull market but which eventually dropped during the lows of the bear market. During the last uranium boom of the 1970's, many majors decided to completely exit the uranium sector.

2. Study the value of ore body with regards to its value per tonne, or its recoverable metal. Estimate the "all in" costs and feel comfortable with what you are paying. Risks-to-reward doesn't favor pure exploration. Typically, we avoid pure exploration plays unless management is excellent, they have a large prospective land package, and the company is well financed.

3. Look for good, proven management, which has been successful in the past.

4. Look for solid shareholders. It is always nice to see that management has a large stake in the company. Often, this makes them value their paper more, and they will be less likely to engage in reckless stock issuance. If not management, I get comfort seeing that successful fund managers have large holdings. It is even better to see that a major company in a related industry has taken an interest in the company.

5. Look at the property's infrastructure. Find out about electricity and water costs required for exploration, development and production. Find out about roads, rail, trucking, access and proximity to a mill.

6. Look for hidden value in the company. We always consider the value of existing infrastructure. From time to time we have been able to buy companies where existing facilities, perhaps a mill or shafts more than justify the entire market cap of the company. Past drilling for uranium will save money. Some companies have properties with very expensive shafts and/or mills. There are also companies with large extensive databases like Energy Metals Corporation (TSX: EMC) and Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM). These databases of past drilling on various properties can be used to continue to acquire good prospects as well as sold in pieces. I would expect that they will also be able to use the data to farm in on other properties or sell other property owners valuable drill-hole data.

7. Buy emerging stories. It is great to find a company before it has any analyst coverage or even covered by letter writers.

8. Find out if the property is in a pro-mining environment. Ultimately, you need to mine. It's best to have a property in a location where government is pro-mining. We will still invest, though, as long as this factor is discounted in the stock. Some countries are so hungry for investment they will offer favorable tax rates and other incentives. Permitting can be costly and take a long time so this is very important.

9. Study the capital costs for the project and the currency in the country where the project is located. Typically, the lower the capital costs, the less risk in the project. The less a company risks, in time and money, to find out if the mine is economic, the greater its chance of success. Larger capital intensive projects usually take longer to bring on, and you could risk missing an important part of the cycle. I also like to consider currency moves and their possible impact. A strengthening local currency can drive up costs and destroy margins. A falling currency can dramatically improve the economics of the project

10. Funding can improve the story or outlook. Make your cash work. It's not really an option for a small investor but as an institution we love to invest in companies when we think our cash is going to make a huge difference. Examples include when Aflease (now SXR Uranium One - TSE: SXR) had cash problems and was being deeply discounted, or our recent Tournigan (TSX: TVC) funding to pay for confirmation drilling and exploration on the Jahodna uranium deposit in Slovakia.

About the Author

James Finch writes about investing in uranium companies on http://StockInterview.com. The entire interview accompanying these tips can be viewed at http://www.stockinterview.com

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